Marcus Tole
Commercial Property Analyst
Christian Finianos
Commercial Property Researcher
In today’s NSW commercial property market, there’s a clear and growing divide.
Some properties, whether investment assets or development sites, are attracting strong competition and transacting with confidence. Others, often comparable on paper, are sitting on the market with limited traction and extended campaign periods.
For many property owners, this raises a simple but important question:
Why?
The answer isn’t just “the market”. It comes down to how buyers are now assessing opportunity in a more complex, cost-sensitive and selective environment.
BUYERS ARE STILL ACTIVE — BUT FAR MORE CONSIDERED
Demand across NSW remains present, however, it is no longer as broad-based or reactive as it once was. Buyers today are more deliberate in how they assess opportunities, often taking additional time to fully understand both the upside and the downside of a deal before engaging further.
As Joseph Assaf, Director at RWC Western Sydney has stated: “We’re still seeing enquiries come through, but buyers are much more selective in what they pursue and how far they’re willing to go.”
This shift is being driven by a number of factors, including higher interest rates, increased holding costs and a general shift in sentiment across global markets. As a result, buyers are no longer chasing every opportunity; they are targeting the ones that clearly align with their strategy and risk appetite.
FEASIBILITY IS DRIVING DECISION-MAKING
Across both development sites and investment assets, feasibility has become the key lens through which opportunities are assessed.
For developers, this means working backwards from a realistic end value and carefully factoring in:
- Construction costs
- Finance and holding costs
- Contributions and compliance requirements
- Delivery timeframes
Where these inputs do not support a viable margin, buyers will either adjust their price expectations or step away entirely.
For investors, the same discipline applies, albeit through a different lens. There is a stronger focus on:
- Income security and tenant quality
- Lease tenure and review structures
- Yield relative to perceived risk
- Future capital expenditure requirements
“The common theme across both buyer groups is that the numbers need to make sense, otherwise the deal simply doesn’t progress.” – Andrew Sacco, Sales Executive.
This has created a market where pricing is no longer aspirational; it must be grounded in reality.
SMALL DIFFERENCES ARE CREATING BIG GAPS
One of the more notable trends in the current market is the widening gap between assets that appear similar at a high level. Two properties may share the same zoning, similar land area or even be located within the same precinct. However, buyers are increasingly focused on the finer details that influence deliverability and risk.
For development sites, this includes:
- Clarity of planning controls
- Site configuration and efficiency
- Ability to stage development or reduce capital exposure
For investment properties:
- Strength and reliability of income
- Tenant covenant and lease profile
- Flexibility of the underlying asset
“We’ve seen buyers walk away from one opportunity and compete heavily on another, even though they looked comparable on the surface.” – Peter Vines, Managing Director.
In a more cautious market, these nuances are often the difference between strong competition and limited engagement.
THE IMPACT OF RISING COSTS AND A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
The operating landscape for both developers and investors has changed significantly over the past few years. Higher construction costs, increased financing expenses and longer delivery timeframes have all placed pressure on feasibility and reduced margin for error.
At the same time, global economic conditions, including inflationary pressures and shifting capital markets, continue to influence local decision-making. This has resulted in a more disciplined and risk-aware buyer pool.
“A deal that worked two or three years ago doesn’t necessarily work in today’s environment, and buyers are adjusting accordingly.” – Peter Vines, Managing Director
Rather than pursuing upside alone, buyers are now prioritising opportunities that offer clarity, stability and a more balanced risk-return profile.
STRATEGY STILL DETERMINES THE OUTCOME
While market conditions have evolved, strong results are still being achieved across NSW.
However, these outcomes are rarely incidental. They are typically the result of a well-considered and structured approach to market.
Effective campaigns are underpinned by:
- clear and realistic positioning
- targeted engagement with relevant buyer groups
- high-quality marketing and information
- a defined process that encourages competitive tension
“It’s not the volume of enquiry that drives a result, it’s the level of competition you’re able to create.” – Andrew Sacco, Sales Executive.
Without this level of structure, even well-located or fundamentally sound assets can struggle to convert interest into meaningful offers.
PRICING: THE FINAL PIECE OF THE PUZZLE
Ultimately, pricing remains one of the most critical factors in determining whether a property sells or sits. In today’s market, pricing must reflect how buyers are assessing opportunities — not how the market performed in previous cycles.
For development sites, this means aligning with current feasibility settings, including construction costs, finance and achievable end values.
For investment properties, it requires a clear understanding of how income, risk and market conditions influence yield expectations.
Where pricing is positioned in line with these realities, properties are far more likely to generate early engagement, competitive tension and stronger outcomes.
Where it is not, campaigns often stall, regardless of location or underlying potential.
The difference lies in aligning with today’s market realities, not yesterday’s expectations.
FINAL THOUGHTS
The gap between properties that are selling and those that are sitting is not random.
It is a reflection of a market that has become more selective, more analytical and more grounded in fundamentals.
“There’s still plenty of capital in the market, it’s just far more disciplined in where it goes.” – Joseph Assaf
For property owners, understanding this shift is key. By aligning pricing, positioning and strategy with current market conditions, it is still very possible to achieve strong outcomes , even in a more challenging environment.
For property owners, understanding this shift is key.